Welcome to the Holiday Season: The Longest Quarter in CPG

For CPG marketers, the holiday season is already underway in September

The months ahead bring some of the biggest shopping moments of the year, from fall launches and Halloween to Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and holiday gifting.

That makes September less of a normal quarterly reset and more of the starting line.

The decisions brands make now can affect everything that comes later: which SKUs get promoted, how much inventory is available, what consumers see first, and whether BFCM becomes a meaningful growth opportunity or just another race to the bottom on price.

The strongest brands don’t wait.

They already have an action plan in mind.

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Quick Glance

In this article, you’ll learn:

• Why holiday shopping starts earlier than the calendar suggests
• How CPG brands should think about seasonal SKUs and product launches
• Why BFCM isn’t automatically the right strategy for every brand
• How consumer value-seeking behavior is changing holiday shopping
• Why brands should start building anticipation before their biggest promotions
• How to decide which holiday opportunities are actually worth pursuing

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The Holiday Shopping Season Starts Earlier Than You Think

Deloitte’s 2025 Holiday Retail Survey found that consumers were spreading purchases across a longer window to manage their budgets, with 24% of their holiday budgets expected to be spent by the end of October. At the same time, traffic was expected to peak in late November and early December.

In other words, the holiday rush may peak later, but the consideration period starts much earlier.

That’s important for CPG brands.

By the time consumers are actively shopping for holiday products, many of the brands they’ll consider have already been introduced to them through social media, retail, email, creator content, and seasonal campaigns.

If a brand waits until November to start building demand, it’s competing for attention at the exact moment everyone else is doing the same thing.

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September Is When the Big Decisions Get Made

The holiday season creates a long list of decisions for CPG marketers.

Which products should get the most support?

Should the brand launch a seasonal SKU?

Is a gift set worth developing?

How much inventory should be allocated to the holiday period?

Should the brand participate in BFCM?

And if it does, what should the offer actually be?

These decisions shouldn’t be made independently.

A seasonal product that doesn’t have enough inventory won’t help much. A large BFCM discount on a product consumers don’t know won’t magically create demand. And launching five new holiday SKUs can create more operational complexity than incremental sales.

The goal isn’t to do everything.

It’s to identify the products and moments that are most likely to matter.

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Start With the SKUs That Deserve Attention

The holiday season can be an easy excuse to add more products.

Limited-edition flavor.

Holiday packaging.

Gift set.

Bundle.

New size.

Special collaboration.

But more SKUs don’t automatically mean more opportunity.

For many brands, the smarter approach is to identify the products that already have strong demand and determine how they can play a bigger role during the holiday season.

That could mean turning a bestseller into a giftable bundle, creating a multipack, introducing seasonal packaging, or simply making the product easier to discover during holiday shopping.

A seasonal SKU can be powerful when it gives consumers a genuine reason to pay attention.

But it needs to earn its place.

The question shouldn’t be “What can we launch for the holidays?”

It should be “Which product gives us the strongest opportunity during this season?”

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The BFCM Strategy Should Match the Brand

If a brand is focused on acquisition, BFCM can be an effective opportunity to reduce the barrier to trying the product.

If the brand has strong premium positioning, a heavy discount may create unnecessary pressure on that positioning. Bundles, exclusive products, gifts-with-purchase, or early access could create value without making price the entire story.

If inventory is the priority, the promotion can be built around specific SKUs rather than discounting the entire portfolio.

And if the goal is retention, existing customers could get first access or a loyalty-focused offer before the general public.

There’s no universal BFCM playbook.

The strongest strategy is the one that supports the business objective behind the promotion.

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Holiday Shoppers Are Looking for Value, Not Cheap Prices

This distinction is becoming increasingly important.

Deloitte’s 2025 Holiday Retail Survey found that consumers were planning to spend an average of $1,595 during the holiday season, down 10% from the previous year. At the same time, 77% expected higher prices on holiday goods.

Consumers responded by becoming more deliberate about where they spend.

Deloitte found that 89% planned to search for deals, while 77% planned to trade down to different brands or retailers. Nearly half said they would add items to wish lists and wait for deals.

That creates a challenging environment for CPG brands.

But it also creates an opportunity.

Value doesn’t always have to mean the lowest possible price.

Consumers can also perceive value through convenience, bundles, quality, loyalty rewards, product benefits, and experiences that make the purchase feel worthwhile.

Deloitte’s research specifically points to the importance of offering value beyond simply having the lowest price.

For brands, that’s an important distinction.

The goal isn’t necessarily to win the discount war.

It’s to make consumers feel that choosing your product is worth it.

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Start Building Anticipation Before You Start Selling

This is where seasonal marketing comes back into the picture.

Pumpkin spice works partly because consumers know it’s coming. The return of the product has become an event in itself.

Holiday CPG can work in a similar way.

If you’re launching a seasonal SKU, start introducing the idea before the product becomes available.

If you’re creating a holiday bundle, give consumers a reason to know it exists before gifting season is in full swing.

If you’re planning a major BFCM promotion, start building the audience before the sale begins.

The objective isn’t necessarily to reveal everything early.

It’s to make sure consumers aren’t discovering your brand for the first time on Black Friday.

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Tease the Sale Before the Sale

BFCM shouldn’t have to appear out of nowhere.

If it’s going to be one of your biggest commercial moments of the year, consumers should have some idea that it’s coming.

Brands can use:

• Early-access lists
• Email and SMS sign-ups
• Waitlists
• Product teasers
• “Coming soon” messaging
• Loyalty-member previews
• Creator content
• Social countdowns

The specific approach will depend on the brand and the offer.

But the principle is straightforward:

Don’t wait until the sale starts to start marketing the sale.

By the time BFCM arrives, you want to be converting people who already know what they’re waiting for.

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Holiday Shopping Is Becoming More Digital

The holiday customer journey isn’t happening in one place.

Deloitte’s 2025 research found that 68% of surveyed consumers planned to use digital tools during holiday shopping, including tools for comparing products and prices. Social media was also a major source of inspiration, with 59% planning to use it for holiday shopping.

That matters for CPG brands because consumers can encounter a product long before they reach the retailer or checkout page.

They might see a creator using it.

Save a product from social media.

Add it to a wishlist.

Compare prices.

Wait for a promotion.

Then finally purchase it during BFCM.

The conversion might happen during the sale, but the decision can start much earlier.

That’s why holiday strategy shouldn’t live exclusively in the promotions calendar.

It should extend across content, creators, social, email, retail, and ecommerce.

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The Longest Quarter Starts Before the Holidays

September may still feel like summer.

But for CPG marketers, the holiday season is already taking shape.

The products you prioritize now, the inventory you plan, the seasonal launches you build, and the BFCM strategy you develop will all influence what happens when holiday demand peaks.

There’s no single formula for winning the holiday season.

But waiting until November to figure it out isn’t one of them.

Start with the products that matter. Build anticipation early. Know what you need BFCM to accomplish. And make sure your promotion gives consumers a reason to choose your brand beyond simply offering the biggest discount.

Because the brands that win the holiday quarter aren’t necessarily the ones shouting the loudest when Black Friday arrives.

They’re the ones that were ready before it did.

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Continue Learning with Clout Collective

The best CPG marketers know that sustainable growth isn’t built around one campaign, one launch, or one promotional moment.

It’s built through strong brands, smart strategy, and a deep understanding of consumer behavior.

Join Clout Collective to connect with fellow CPG marketers and discover the ideas shaping the future of consumer brands.

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